This could be a real-life Prisoners' Dilemma in the Pac 10/12

If you stay together, there's a possibility you might save everyone. If you jump, you will almost certainly save yourself and doom (many of) the others.

It'll actually be interesting to see if this becomes something of an economics case study.

Given where UW and UO have seemed to be already, I'd think that the optimal strategy for UA/ASU/UU/CU would be to defect to the Big 12.