I analyzed the update data on DACA renewals: key trends, backlog surges, and what’s I think has been happening behind the scenes.
>**TL;DR:**
I’ve been tracking the weekly updates shared by u/CatchingExcalibur in his weekly posts to see what the bigger picture looks like. When you view the numbers side-by-side, there is genuine, encouraging movement suggesting USCIS is slowly working through the backlog.
Here is my interpretation of what has been playing out since April.
# 1. Data Context & Tracker Limitations
Adjudication guidelines changed last October, which drastically slowed processing times across the board. By late spring, the backlog had grown so severe that community trackers became essential.
Keep in mind that these community trackers are incomplete samples. They monitor confirmed DACA receipt numbers and scrape adjacent blocks to track velocity, but they aren't logging every single case nationwide. While we cannot see agency-wide totals, we *can* reliably map the macro trends.
# 2. The Spring Slump vs. The June Congressional Surge
Between late April and May, weekly approvals were hovering at a dismal **200–300 cases per week**. This was the peak panic window when advocacy groups urged everyone to apply far earlier than the traditional 120-day mark.
By June, congressional offices were flooded with expedite requests, prompting lawmakers to bring in DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin to answer for the delays. Following that pressure, USCIS went into overdrive:
* Weekly approvals jumped from **3k -> 3.3k -> 7.5k -> 8.7k** across June. * USCIS essentially staged a massive surge to clear backlogged cohorts they were falling behind on. * Since July, approvals have leveled off to a consistent baseline of roughly **2,000–2,500 per week**.
# 3. Why Not "First In, First Out"? (Statistical Damage Control)
People frequently ask why USCIS doesn’t just work strictly in chronological order from oldest to newest.
If DHS only touched 200+ day backlogged files, the agency's official median processing times on public dashboards would skyrocket. Mixing newer, faster cases with older backlogged files keeps reported cycle times artificially lower on paper.
To the few still waiting from February or earlier (200+ days): my heart is genuinely with you. The stress of that limbo keeps me up at night. The remaining files from those older cohorts are likely trapped in manual review flags, lost file reroutes, or active inquiries.
# 4. The Automation Pivot (Post–July 27)
Starting the week of July 27th, we began seeing a noticeable shift toward rapid turnarounds for brand-new filers. This lines up with the automated adjudication rollout Mullin promised earlier this summer.
Instead of solely grinding through the oldest files, recent weeks show approvals distributed across the entire backlog, including a major bump for June filers during the week of September 8th.
# 5. Why True Approvals Are Probably Higher Than Trackers Show
Community trackers have a natural **selection/anxiety bias**:
* When processing times hit 6–8 months, panicked applicants check trackers daily and report their approvals immediately. * As USCIS speeds up and newer applicants get approved in 30–60 days, they rarely join Reddit trackers or update status sheets.
Fewer people entering trackers means we are likely undercounting total approvals. The fact that the sheets still record \~2k+ approvals a week with lower tracker engagement is a strong indicator that USCIS is making real headway.
# 6. A Rough Rule of Thumb to Gauge Your Month
I don't put much faith in automated case estimators, but you can use this cohort data to estimate when a month is near completion:
* **February 2026** has the highest volume of captured approvals at **\~9.6k**. * If we use roughly **10,000 approvals** as a baseline target to consider a month "cleared," you can estimate where USCIS currently stands:
|**Submission Month**|**Approx. Approvals Logged**|**Estimated Completion**| |:-|:-|:-| |**March 2026**|\~8,350|**\~83%**| |**April 2026**|\~5,830|**\~58%**| |**May 2026**|\~3,770|**\~38%**| |**June 2026**|\~2,880|**\~29%**|
*(Note: Because of the drop in tracker participation, these percentages might actually be conservative.)*
Seeing the data organized like this helped calm my own renewal anxiety, so I hope it offers some clarity and perspective to everyone still waiting.
References & Further Reading:
1. **California Congressional Letter to DHS:** [Costa et al. Joint Letter on DACA Delays](https://costa.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/costa-evo.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/finalized-letter-to-homeland-and-uscis-on-daca-renewal-processing-delays.pdf) 2. **Colorado Delegation Letter:** [Bennet & Neguse Demand Answers on 360% Backlog Spike](https://www.bennet.senate.gov/2026/06/18/bennet-neguse-colorado-democrats-demand-answers-on-daca-renewal-backlog/?utm_source=gemini) 3. **Mullin Congressional Testimony on Automation:** [PBS NewsHour House Oversight Stream (1:52:00 mark)](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-mullin-testifies-before-house-committee-on-dhs-oversight?utm_source=gemini) 4. **Community Discussion on Mullin's 30-Day Automated Timeline:** [r/DACA Hearing Breakdown](https://www.reddit.com/r/DACA/comments/1uq02mj/mullins_on_new_daca_process/) 5. **Advisory on Processing Stalls & 150-Day Filings:** [ILRC Delay Action Steps](https://www.ilrc.org/community-resources/steps-take-if-your-daca-renewal-delayed)
Here's the link to the sheets document here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFyNWsi5Lw3\_WYMGYESJK8Z8JGTy4xNHIFfMNUU2wEg/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFyNWsi5Lw3_WYMGYESJK8Z8JGTy4xNHIFfMNUU2wEg/edit?usp=sharing)