Justin Amash has formed an exploratory committee to seek the Libertarian Party's nomination for President. How do you think this would impact the general election?

Michigan Independent Congressman Justin Amash just announced his exploratory committee on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1255291408732360712).

Amash was one of President Trump's fiercest GOP critics, which led to his leaving the party last year. He's been serving as an Independent ever since, and was notably the only non-Democrat that voted for both articles for impeachment. Before that, Amash was a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, and also chaired the House Liberty caucus, both of which were a thorn in the side of GOP leadership for years.

It goes without saying that he won't win, but I'm more interested in the potential for a shake-up in Michigan. Just a reminder, Trump carried Michigan by a little over than 10000 votes. Amash's district is Republican-friendly (PVI R+6), and he's won every election he's been in by 10 to 20 points.

* What are his chances of winning the Libertarian Party's nomination?

* Do you think he'll be able to hold onto a significant chunk of his constituents if he doesn't have an R next to his name? Additionally, what voters would he be targeting?

* Could an Amash run and the spoiler-effect swing the election?

* Who benefits: Trump or Joe Biden?

To add some context, Michigan is probably *the* swing state of the 2020 general election. According to the [RealClearPolitics polling average](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html), Biden currently holds a 5.5% lead over Trump. The most recent poll is from [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-michigan-where-gov-whitmer-is-more-popular-than-president), and has the former VP with an 8-point lead over the President.