Do you ever tell students that their academic dreams are unlikely to happen?

I feel like I'm spending a lot of time advising students on getting into grad school when they have a 2.3 GPA. I say things like, "you know, that's a very competitive program," and "very few people with degrees in my area get jobs in academia unless they come from the very top programs, which are extremely selective." But I never come right out and tell them "it's extremely unlikely that you will get into a program that will set you up for a research position with your record-- you should seek other career paths."

I think, in part, I don't feel it's my place to shatter their aspirations, when I don't know with 100% certainty that they will fail. At the same time, I feel a little resentful of all the time I spend advising them. And I'm not sure I'm doing them any favors.

Do you guys come right out and say the quiet part out loud?