Ballpark Transport\Rocket Cost for Starship 1 Megatonne to Mars ballpark $450B ($180/kg)

Obviously just another "armchair guy with a spreadsheet" post (This is after all the SpaceX "lounge" lol), but plugged in some ballpark numbers for the cost of starship transporting 1Mt to surface of mars (just transport and starship production costs, not cost of stuff sent).

I'm sure I have missed some things, but as just a ballpark figure; it came out way lower than I thought it would.

Interestingly, even if you double the "mass to mars per mission" from 100t to 200t, only makes a modest improvement in total transport cost. The production of the 1000 starships (which is my massive assumption) still dominates the cost.

Edit : I updated from my original values as the consensus seemed to be I was being grossly pessimistic with my numbers, see revised ballparks below....(the cost per kg has become an astonishing $20/kg).

Thanks "u/spacerfirstclass" for source information about CH4 and LOX prices (and your computations).

Thanks "u/sebaska" for more realistic refill trips/refill quantities values etc.

Remember : I know this is missing a whole bunch of details (salaries, plant capex etc. and all that), but good to get a sort of feeling for the costs would be, kind of like the "Drake Equation".

Updated google sheets link :[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s-9nVQW1byJivDLPYr\_iS8k-fshIV-X9SGeFaZfZlA8/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s-9nVQW1byJivDLPYr_iS8k-fshIV-X9SGeFaZfZlA8/edit?usp=sharing)