[SPOILERS TH] how literally do you take Bayaz’s speech to Calder?

when he’s got Calder in front of the corpse pit and basically is telling him he’s going to be a puppet king.

it seems like Bayaz is suggesting, to the reader at least if not Calder, that he SOMEHOW planted the idea in Calder’s own head to make the specific dog comment in the first chapter, and also provoked Black Dow to echo the same thing in the circle much later prompting Shivers to kill him.

Of course Bayaz is established as a manipulator and does magical stuff “on screen” but remote mind control hijinx seems like something new and presumably this is neither his specialty nor is he at the height of his powers here.

do you think Bayaz is bluffing here and the events that elevated Calder were pure dumb luck, or is Bayaz out here incepting people?