Ontario mortgage arrears expected to rise through mid-2027, delinquency rates approaching levels last seen around 2008. The largest increases clustered in Ontario census metro areas | Share of MIE balances in arrears for 90+ days rose from 3.0% in 2023 Q3 to 11.1% in 2026 Q1 in GTHA, >3x rest of CA
Note that the headline delinquency numbers (pan Canada, or Ontario) summarize only upto 80% of residential-mortgage market, representing the Bank borrowers who are largely the prime customers. This is the norm followed by all of the Canadian establishment, and the pliant Canadian news media, while not adding any qualifier/disclosure about excluding rest(20%) of the residential mortgage market.
> MIE | Mortgage Investment Entity (Lender Type): A non-bank mortgage lender type that generally provides short term loans with higher interest rates to borrowers who don't qualify with traditional lenders. Mortgage investment entities include mortgage investment corporations and other private lenders.
At the end of Q2 2026, **Ontario accounted for $69.8 billion in outstanding residential mortgages (including arrears) held by non-bank lenders and Mortgage Investment Entities (MIEs)**, excluding credit unions—representing **56%** of Canada's total in this sector - [StatCan](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3310053002&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2026&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=04&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2026&referencePeriods=20260101%2C20260401).
At the end of Q1 2026, while [MIEs alone accounted for $37.8 Bn in Outstanding residential mortgage](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/residential-mortgage-industry-data-dashboard?ap=a1-p1) across Canada (and $2 Bn of them in 30+ days arrears), there isn't an Ontario specific stat available.
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>Within the MIE segment, risk is concentrated in Ontario, particularly in the GTHA. The share of MIE balances in arrears for 90 days or more rose from 3.0% in the third quarter of 2023 to 11.1% in the first quarter of 2026 in the GTHA, more than 3 times the rate in the rest of Canada.
> Interest-only lending is more common in the GTHA than elsewhere. Because these loans do not reduce principal over time, borrowers build less equity through repayment and have less protection if home prices fall. As of the first quarter of 2026, interest-only loans accounted for 69.7% of GTHA MIE balances, compared with 57.3% in the rest of Canada.
> Borrower equity has become thinner. The share of uninsured GTHA MIE balances with a loan-to-value ratio above 80% increased sixfold, from 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024 to 9.2% in the first quarter of 2026. This likely reflects limited principal repayment on interest-only loans and falling home prices.
> Debt burdens have risen sharply. Nearly one-third of GTHA MIE balances are now held by borrowers spending more than 60% of their income on debt payments.
>Individually, these risks may be manageable. Together, they create a more fragile portfolio. **More interest-only lending, thinner equity and heavier debt burdens reduce borrowers’ resilience if incomes weaken; payments rise or resale house prices fall. Although MIEs account for a small share of the mortgage market, GTHA MIE arrears could provide an early signal of broader mortgage market stress.**