Eugenio Suárez is on his way to the worst 30+ Home Run season ever
Eugenio Suárez is having a bad year, but he is hitting home runs. [There have been 17 men that have hit 30 HR in a season despite being below league average hitters](https://stathead.com/tiny/HbNw8), that is having an OPS+ below 100. Suárez is currently at 21 HR, on pace for just under 32 for the full season. If he gets to 30, he will join the list of 30 HR season while being a below league average unless he goes on an absurdly dominant stretch for the next 2 months.
Suárez's current OPS+ is 60, which would be the worst OPS+ for a 30 HR season ever recorded. The top two worst seasons are both held by the GOAT of bad 30 HR seasons himself, Rougned Odor with 63 (2017) and 79 (2019). Number three is held by Tony Batista at 81 (2004), who also has the [worst OPS+ in a 40 HR season at 102](https://stathead.com/tiny/kbBjI) (2000). Will we see a below league average hitter with 40 HR someday?
A few final notes on the other bad 30+ HR seasons. Dave Kingman joins Odor as the only guy to do it twice, and he also has the most HR in a sub 100 OPS+ season ever with 37 in 1982 (OPS+ 99). Probably the most amusing to me is Vinny Castilla in 1999. Coors was so crazy in the 90s that a slash of .275/.331/.478 (.809 OPS) came out to an OPS+ of 82. For comparison, Mitch Haniger has an OPS of .810 this year for an OPS+ of 127. Andres Galarraga was another Coors man on the list. His 31 HR .842 OPS season was good for a 97 OPS+.
Of course, it wouldn't take much to get Suárez's OPS+ up a bit to pass Odor's mark. You have to continuously be atrocious at the plate to maintain a mark that low, a decent week and he could climb over Odor's 63. It's also possible he fails to reach 30 HR.
As for why he's been so bad, he's got a 30% K rate and just a 9% walk rate. He has had some bad batted ball luck, but his contact quality is mostly to blame. His .196 BABIP seems to point to bad luck, but his .208 xBA seems to indicate otherwise. His hard hit rate is well below where he's been in recent years, his pop ups are way up and his line drive rate is way down. It would be hyperbolic to say he's only made good contact 21 times (his HRs) and everything else has been bad, but it's closer to reality than you'd think.
I do wonder how much more of this type of season is going to be tolerated by teams. Suárez is batting .175, but if he walked more he would not be in danger of taking this title. There is unprecedented tolerance for low batting averages with high power, but when a guy doesn't walk that becomes a very hard pill to swallow. Anyway, I always enjoy statistical anomaly type seasons and Eugenio Suárez is definitely having one. Here's hoping he can take Odor's crown (sorry Reds fans).