Why I think the Celtics should go for Okafor

I know this has already been talked about here ad nauseum since the lottery, but I felt like there's several points some posters here have been missing.

To make the case for Okafor, let’s compare two players’ rookie years after each spent only one year in college. Both were 20 years old and played on bad teams.

(per game)|Player A|Player B :-:| :-:| :-: Minutes|30.0|28.5 Points|17.5|14.1 Rebounds|7.0|8.6 Assists|1.2|2.5 Steals|0.4|1.0 Blocks|1.2|0.8 Turnovers|2.3|3.3 Fouls|2.6|4.1

Player A scored more, had more blocks, fewer turnovers, and fewer fouls, while Player B had more rebounds, assists, and steals. While they each played similar minutes per game, normalizing their stats to per 100 possessions will provide a more fair comparison.

(per 100p)|Player A|Player B :-:| :-:| :-: Points|28.6|25.0 Rebounds|11.5|15.3 Assists|2.0|4.5 Steals|0.7|1.9 Blocks|1.9|1.5 Turnovers|3.8|5.9 Fouls|4.3|5.9

They played at a similar pace and similar minutes so it’s no surprise there aren’t any changes to who averaged more, just some of the differences shifted. This will mostly serve as just a reference.

Let’s take a look at who shot better:

(raw shooting)|Player A|Player B :-:| :-:| :-: FG%|.508|.430 3P%|.167|.167 FT%|.686|.687 2P%|.511|.435 eFG%|.509|.432 TS%|.536|.484

Three point shooting and free throws were a wash, but Player A was significantly more efficient in his scoring. Maybe Player B had poor shot selection, let’s look at how often they shot from certain distances from the basket.

(FGA%, ft)|Player A|Player B :-:| :-:| :-: 0-3|.394|.304 3-10|.327|.349 10-16|.192|.116 16 < 3|.079|.214 3P|.008|.018

They are fairly close in how many shots they took from each distance, but Player A took about 9% more shots from within 3 feet and Player B took more than twice as many long twos. We know the Celtics already have enough guys that shoot long 2’s (avery pls), so maybe Player B would benefit by shooting more within 0-3 feet.

Here’s how each shot from each distance:

(FGM%, ft)|Player A|Player B :-:| :-:| :-: 0-3|.675|.633 3-10|.463|.323 10-16|.353|.328 16 < 3|.274|.395 3P|.167|.167

Player A actually shot better at all three distances within 16 feet, despite shooting more within that distance (combined).

Finally (because I’m getting sick of making tables in reddit’s shitty formatting), here’s some advance stats for each player.

(advanced)|Player A|Player B :-:| :-:| :-: PER|17.1|14.6 WS/48|.037|.022 VORP|-0.8|0.4 USG%|27.3|27.2 ORtg|99|94 DRtg|110|105

I’m not really going to say much here since everyone has their own take on advance stats and I’m sure someone’s going to point out another relevant stat I didn’t include (I’m only pulling from bb-ref). I do think it’s worth noting that the two had near identical usage percentages and the same difference between offensive and defensive ratings.

If you didn’t figure it out by now, **Player A is Jahlil Okafor**, a guy a lot of fans here don’t want to give up the third pick in the draft for. **Player B was from DeMarcus Cousins’ rookie year**, a guy who a lot of fans think we now can’t get because we didn’t get a top two pick in the draft.

Yes, Jah has been a knucklehead his rookie year, but Cousins is in his mid-20’s and still has character concerns. There’s still plenty of hope for Jah, especially in a winning environment.

Here’s a few more qualitative points I’d like to make to help Jah’s case in Boston:

1. The low post big in the modern NBA isn’t dead, there just have been so few good ones in the past ten or so years. Cousins has been the best one since Yao and I’d argue Jah can eclipse DMC.

2. Anecdotally, a common reason we go cold offensively sometimes and especially in the playoffs is when we are unable to either make shots or attack the rim, and being unable to do one will allow defenses to attack the other. Yes, this is a three point shooting league now, but having an excellent low post big will open up those 3’s and long 2’s for our currently very average shooting team. Ideally we could get a known good three point shooter this offseason to help open up things for Jah. He was able to have a very solid year in the post last year, despite the Sixers being unable to open things up for him (FG%: 30th in long 2’s, 24th in 3’s, whereas we were 27th in long 2’s and 28th in 3’s). We were able to be around the same level as the Sixers for shooting despite not having a low post threat.

3. Whether we were to get DMC or Jah, we’d need to pair them with a solid rim protecting big. Six of the last seven NBA champions won the title with someone that was considered just a role player as their rim protector. The only exception was Tim Duncan, who was no longer the best player on the Spurs at that point. The ideal player next to Jah would be someone like prime Ibaka, who can stretch the floor while being an elite rim protector. If Horford is still available, then he would be a very good complement that’s a reasonable pickup this offseason.

4. Jah is still very early in his rookie contract and gives us incredible cap flexibility the next two offseasons. With how many efficient contracts we have that heavily contribute (Jae, AB, IT, Smart), we would have plenty of space to get up to two more stars either through free agency or trade. Someone like DMC would only allow us to sign one more star.

5. Jah’s defense is bad, but not that bad and there’s room to grow. He’s an average man defender and shit as a help defender. He’s still very young, there’s plenty of room to grow on both ends.

6. Trust Brad. He’ll find a system that works with him, mask him defensively with our elite perimeter D, and groom him to his potential on both ends of the court.

That’s all I can think of for now. I mentioned on the Sixers subreddit that I’d personally do #3, #16, and Hunter for Jah straight up which was met with some agreement (small sample size). That’d condense some of our excessive assets/players and give us a great young player to build around for years. We’d still have plenty of assets leftover to get another young star as well, if not this year then next when hopefully the Nets have another poor season.

Please let me know if I missed anything or there’s any errors. As I mentioned, I hate making tables with reddit’s formatting and could have easily fucked something up.