CMV: The best case scenario for the GOP is for Trump to die of natural causes as soon as possible.
Let’s take a look at the options the remain in life for former US President Donald Trump.
1. He could win the Republican Primary 2. He could lose the Republican Primary 3. He could be arrested and imprisoned for any of the cases he currently has pending in jurisdictions both state and federal. 4. He could fade into obscurity (his recent filing fir running for president pretty much destroyed this option) 5. He could die.
The crux of my argument is that the first 3 options are all worse for the GOP then the 5th option, with the 4th being dismissed by Trump’s recent announcement of running in 2024.
In option 1, he would most likely lose the general election. This midterm election seemed to be a rebuke to all candidates supported by Trump, and his election denial did not play well either. A loss in the general, and a drag on the ticket, the GOP could lose the House as well. This is obviously not in the GOP’s best interests.
Not only does he probably lose the general election, but he would permanently muddy any rising star politician (Desantis) in the primaries should they choose to run against him. Trump doesn’t hold punches in primaries, we’ve seen this.
In option 2, there is plenty to say here, but almost none of it good for the GOP. Trump has quiet a few plays should he lose the primary. He could support the winning candidate. This might actually be the only outcome the doesn’t really hurt them as a party. But come on. We all know Trump. He detests losing. Can anyone really see him bending the knee and stumping for someone who beat him? So that leaves other options for Trump.
He could run as a 3rd party candidate. This is of course the worst case scenario for the GOP as they can expect a minimum of 15% (I would say really closer to 30%) of their base to vote for the “MAGA” party or whatever. This would ensure a democrat win in the general (with unknown effects on the House and Senate). It could fracture an ancient (in American terms) party.
He could just stay back and do nothing/talk shit about both nominees, potentially lowering GOP turnout, and again, losing them the election.
Option 3 is unlikely, seeing as it hasn’t happened yet and now he is a presidential candidate. But if it did happen, it would be huge. And I’d love to see one of you redditors spin it as good for the Republicans, because I can’t see how it would be. Maybe you could say they would be very angry, which would drive turnout. But turnout to who? And aren’t they already really angry?
This leaves option 5. Trump dies (of natural causes; I cannot predict what would happen if he were assassinated). This would allow the GOP to move on from Trump without losing his base. The next guy can come in and say “Yeah Trump was great, a true legend, and I’m here to pick up where he left off.” But they couldn’t do this unless he dies.