[Long] Fossil fuel production, why I think the West won't change, and how I wish there was more open honesty about the issue.
So I decided to have some fun looking at daily worldwide fossil fuel production and compare that to fossil fuel use for someone like me in Canada. How much energy do I actually use on a daily basis compared to what the fossil fuel industry produces daily?
As of 2018, the world's main [primary energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_energy) sources consisted of petroleum (34%), coal (27%), and natural gas (24%), amounting to an 85% share for fossil fuels in [primary energy consumption in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). Non-fossil sources included [nuclear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power) (4.4%), [hydroelectric](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectricity) (6.8%), and other [renewable energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy) sources (4.0%, including [geothermal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_power), [solar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy), [tidal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_power), [wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power), [wood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_fuel), and [waste](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste-to-energy)).[\[5\]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel#cite_note-5) The share of renewable sources (including traditional biomass) in the world's total final energy consumption was 18% in 2018.[\[6\]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel#cite_note-6)
So lets begin! My focus is on petroleum, coal, and natural gas. I started with converting to a L/person/day unit. To make things simpler I converted the energy in natural gas and coal to barrel of oil equivalents to maintain a relative apple to apple comparison.
**Oil 2020**
Worldwide Production – 76 124 800 barrels per day (Source Wikipedia)
1 barrel of oil = 159 liters
76 124 800 bpd X 159 liters / barrel = 12 103 843 200 L/day
World Population 7 800 000 000
12 103 843 200 L/day / 7 800 000 000 persons = **1.55 L/person/day**
**Natural Gas 2020**
Worldwide Production – 3 853.7 billion cubic meters natural gas / year ([https://www.statista.com/statistics/265344/total-global-natural-gas-production-since-1998/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/265344/total-global-natural-gas-production-since-1998/))
Convert to cubic feet using google conversion (approx. 35 cubic feet per cubic meter)
136 092.131 billion cubic feet of natural gas / year
Using [http://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/cubic-feet-of-natural-gas-to-barrels-of-oil-equivalent](http://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/cubic-feet-of-natural-gas-to-barrels-of-oil-equivalent) to calculate barrel of oil equivalent for natural gas (approx. 5800 cubic feet natural gas = 1 barrel of oil)
136 092.131 billion cubic feet of natural gas / year = 23.46 billion barrels of oil equivalent
23 460 000 000 / 365 days/year = 64 273 972.60 barrels/day
64 273 972.60 barrels/day X 159 liters / barrel = 10 219 561 643.4 liters/day
10 219 561 643.4 liters/day / 7 800 000 000 persons = **1.31 liters/person/day**
**Coal 2020**
Production – 7 741.6 million tonnes / year (Source Wikipedia)
7 741 600 000 tonnes/year X 4.789 boe/tonne = 37 074 522 400 boe/year
37 074 522 400 boe/year X 159 liters/boe = 5 894 849 061 600 liters/year
5 894 849 061 600 liters/year / 365 days/year = 16 150 271 401.64 liters/day
16 150 271 401.64 liters/day / 7 800 000 000 persons = **2.07 liters/person/day**
**To Recap – Daily Production**
Oil – 1.55 liters/person/day
Natural Gas - 1.31 liters/person/day
Coal – 2.07 liters/person/day
**Total** – **4.93 liters/person/day**
So every day, if everything was equally distributed, my "share" of the harvested fossil fuels (if everything where equally distributed) in barrel of oil equivalent from the planet would be 4.93 liters a day. Considering just my commute to work is 100 km round trip, I have burned through my allocation of fossil fuels just getting to work. I haven’t turned a light on, heated the house, cooked my breakfast, nor taken a shower.
Looking at per capita energy usage for Canadians, [https://ourworldindata.org/per-capita-energy](https://ourworldindata.org/per-capita-energy) shows that the average person uses 105 000 kWh per year (average American uses approx. 80 000 kWh – oh to live in the great white north). This includes electricity, transport, heating/cooling the home, food for cooking. Conversion of kWh to boe (barrel oil equivalent) 105 000 kWh = 62.26 boe. Multiply by 159 liters per barrel and divide by 365 days in a year and you get 27 L/day as the average per capita energy use/oil use per day.
27 L/day, every day of the year. The world produces approx. 5 L/day. This means I need 5 people in the world not using ANY energy to balance out what I use.
Now let’s say I wanted to use renewables to power my lifestyle instead of fossil fuels. Using the following (https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/how-much-electricity-does-a-solar-panel-produce) a 370-watt solar panel will produce between 1.4 kWh and 1.9 kWh of electricity on average, per day, in the United States. Let’s estimate on the high end for fun. 105 000 kWh / 365 days per year = 287.67 kWh/day. 287.67 kWh/day / 1.9 kWh/panel = 151 of the 370-watt solar panels to meet my entire energy need (not just electricity but everything).
I can see why meeting climate change goals is going to require change of lifestyle. According to this article [https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-set-be-30-times-15degc-limit-2030](https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-set-be-30-times-15degc-limit-2030)
\- The poorest half of the global population will emit far below the 1.5C aligned level in 2030
\- **The richest 1% (income greater than $109 000) will exceed limit by 30x and richest 10% by 9x**
Just from the numbers I played with before, I can see why I should be reducing my energy use by 9 to 30x. Let’s use the lower factor of 9x…reducing daily energy use from 27L/day to 2.7L/day or 105 000 kWh/year to 10 500 kWh/year.
**Housing**
With focus placed on just heating my house to live in this frosty country, [https://energyrates.ca/residential-electricity-natural-gas/](https://energyrates.ca/residential-electricity-natural-gas/) tells us that the average Albertan household uses 110 GJ of natural gas per year. Converted from GJ to kWH this is 30 555 kWh/year. Now this is per household and not per capita - my household has two people in it. Keeping in mind this is all napkin math here but if my average yearly energy use is 105 000 kWh total and heating my house takes about 15 250 kWh from that budget, I cannot reach the goal of 9x reduction. House heating alone puts that goal out of my reach (if I want to maintain living in a single-family detached home).
**Transport**
I commute 100 km round trip with a ½ ton truck. I use this truck for business during the day as well but won’t include those km’s. On average I get 12L/100 km. This works out nice and round then to 12L of gasoline per day. I’m keeping the math round and not taking out holidays and the like). 1 L of gasoline contains 8.9 kWh of electricity.
12 L X 8.9 kWh / L X 5 days/week X 52 weeks/year = 27 768 kWh per year. So commuting to work alone will take up almost triple the goal of 10 500 kWh per year. And this does NOT include the miles I put on at work which can range from 100-300 km per day.
**Discussion**
In my opinion people really shouldn’t even be living in Canada full time to begin with. Or if there is a population of people to remain in Canada, housing would need to be completely overhauled to maybe massive underground complexes? To even come close to meeting the goals of carbon reduction there needs to be a complete overhaul of how we live and how we work. I know this isn’t new and all the aforementioned calculations were not needed to come up with this point but they were fun to delve into and useful for me to shed some light on the costs of a certain lifestyle.
I just do NOT see a change in lifestyle coming before it is too late. Both from an individual side and from a systemic side. People will never **volunteer** to sell their house, move closer to work, and cohabitate with multiple families. Hell, they don’t even want to hear about it. Does anyone honestly believe people will volunteer to do this without it being mandated? If we look on the individual side, I know enough people who feel like they know what is coming and they still don’t want to give up modern convenience, and in another regard, they don’t truly know how to. If we look on the mandated systemic side, there will be all out violence and revolt if even a modicum of change is asked…just look at Covid-19, masks, and social distancing. People are being killed over wearing of masks for fucks sake. The government will never regulate this lifestyle change into existence because the population will just vote them out. As long as the media continues to dangle in front of us this chance, this snifter of hope that it will all work out, I do not believe people will ever be motivated enough to change. The irony of it all being that in the long run the affluent Western lifestyle will be lost regardless; what changes is if we are prepared for the change or not.
Environmental Impact = Population X Affluence X Technology. Some will say we have a population problem, and others will say we have an affluence problem. Overall, I think we have both. We have too many people wanting to live a life of luxury with all the latest conveniences. Ignorance really is bliss. If I didn’t know how comfortable this lifestyle is, it would be that much easier to revert back to a lifestyle of the past.
In the end, I wish there was more honesty about this entire issue. This game is over. I wish all the articles would stop saying that we have time, we can do it, we can save the planet and keep what the 10% have. The current top 10% lifestyle is NOT AN OPTION. It is inevitable that it disappears. The question is how much damage will be caused trying to maintain it, and how much harder will it make life for those who exist in the future post fossil fuel society.