Carlos Rodon Velocity Discussion

Last year, Rodon was one of the most anticipated big league call-ups. The highly-touted 6'3" lefty boasted a 96 MPH fastball and a filthy slider that had fantasy owners drooling. After a solid May (3.20 ERA), Rodon was blistered in June and July to the tune of a 5.63 ERA. At the same time, he was demonstrating major control issues (48 walks in his first 76.2 innings), causing many to wonder whether he need more time on the farm.

Rodon found his form again from August through October, posting a 2.56 ERA while posting a more reasonable K/9 (~8) and BB/9 (~3.4), making many excited about what was to come this season, including myself. I expected him to continue having control issues, and he has to some extent(3.67 BB/9 in 2016), but I figured that if he kept them in check he could still produce a pretty valuable season given his second half last year. What I didn't expect was that his fast ball to lose two MPH (93.6 to 91.7), 3 MPH on his slider (87.2 to 84.4), and close to 3 MPH off his change (84.8 to 82.1).

The drop in velocity could be a result of him trying to improve his command, but whatever it is, the difference is pretty startling. Despite this, Eno Sarris just wrote an article arguing that "Rodon is going to break out, or already has." Noting the fact 30% of his pitches were sliders last year (down to 21% this year) in conjunction with his significant drop in velocity, I'm wondering whether there is something injury related going on.

I wanted to conclude that it was just a beginning of the season, getting stretched out kind of thing, but according to Brooksbaseball, he was averaging nearly 95 MPH on his fastball From April to June last year, and around 93.5 the rest of the season. That's a far cry from where he sits now, and it's pretty abnormal for a pitcher as young as Rodon to lose this much velocity.

As for the effects, it's probably too early to tell, especially considering the movement of Rodon's pitches varied so much last year. That said, it seems to have diminished the effectiveness of his slider, which was his best pitch last year, and his change, which wasn't great, but still better than it looks currently.

So, after that novel, do you all have any thoughts on what could be going on?