When do you think Shannahan will pull the trigger on letting Carlyle go? Is Nonis safe?

I personally feel no one is safe, Carlyle and Nonis. I could see Shannahan cleaning house, Nonis and Carlyle both let go by Christmas. I am more convinced that its not just the coaching, its the players as well. Is there a coach out there that can convince Kessel to backcheck more often? Or tell Gardiner to take a hit to make a defensive play?