RDW at ~$8.50: down ~65% from the May peak, while revenue nearly doubled. What the market is pricing in

After the SpaceX-IPO hype in May (52w high $26.64), Redwire has given back most of the move and now trades around $8.40–8.80. Meanwhile the fundamentals moved in the opposite direction. Here’s a quick look at the numbers as of mid-October 2026, based on the Q2 filing and call.

**What Q2 2026 actually showed (reported, USD)**

Revenue $117.1M, +89.6% YoY, of which Space $55.2M (−2.6% YoY) and Defense Tech $61.9M. Most of the growth is the Edge Autonomy drone business, not space.

Gross margin 27.8%, vs. −30.9% in Q2 2025. Management guides near-term margins in the low-to-mid 20s, as defense tech scales faster.

Net loss −$41.0M, improved by $56M YoY. Adj. EPS −$0.09 vs. −$0.16 consensus.

Backlog of $542.1M, +64.5% YoY: Space $322M, Defense Tech $220M. Book-to-bill was 1.42 for the quarter and 1.52 LTM, with five straight quarters of backlog growth.

Liquidity of $607.8M. Interest expense dropped from $23.8M to $0.8M per quarter after the capital structure was cleaned up.

FY26 revenue guide reaffirmed at $450–500M, with management claiming \~90% visibility at the midpoint. With $214M booked in H1, H2 needs roughly $236–286M.

**Valuation (my rough math, not reported)**

At \~$8.50 and roughly 300M+ shares, market cap is around $2.6B. Net of \~$600M liquidity, EV lands somewhere around $2B, so \~4–4.5x 2026 sales at the guidance midpoint. At the May peak, the stock traded at \~13–14x P/S. The market now pays for a hardware-heavy defense/space contractor, not a “space platform.”