Dilex Digest - Data Density and Math Modifications

Hello Captains!

Throughout the month of June I really boosted my efforts to collet data. I’m still interpreting the results.

Previously I was getting data back every 14 days or so. My math was simple. Queue length at start divided by total duration equals throughput. Next start time plus queue length divided by previous throughput equals prediction.

I’m getting far more frequent data points back now. As a result, I’m feeling every little bump in the road a lot more. For example, between June 1 and June 2, the queue dropped by about 300k. The basic math would indicate that offers made on those two days would be accepted only hours apart. That didn’t happen. In fact, along with a drop in the queue, we had a drop in throughput.

There has always been at least one major flaw in this model. I have no way of measuring how many offers get removed from the queue, and so my model just assumes that nobody does. I know that’s not true. I know people cancel their orders. I’ve heard it anecdotally, and now and can see its shadow. This brings me back to the drop in the queue at the beginning of June.

We all remember what happened around that time, right? Gomtuu was released with a dilithium buyout option. The logic seems sound to me that a sharp drop in the queue with a decrease in periodic throughput means people were cancelling their orders. No, I can’t prove it. But now, when something like this happens it kind of jumbles my math, and I can only connect the dots by inference. If there’s a mass withdrawal like that overnight, especially one that’s larger than the daily throughput, there’s a chance that my prediction for timepoint B may be earlier than for timepoint A. The system doesn’t work that way, so I’m still trying to figure out a way to handle things like that.

Last time I checked in here I had predicted that June 1 offers would be accepted on July 21. That order came in on July 14. Put your torches down. That says more about the change in periodic throughput between May 15 and June 1 than anything I described above. Whether or not I can come up with a way to sniff out withdrawals, my prediction math is scheduled to stabilize by Thursday, July 23. Let’s stick with the Generations meme and talk about what I forecast to come in over the next couple Tuesdays – *using math that’s still developing:*

July 21 - Currently expecting offers from June 7 to be accepted July 28 - Expecting offers from June 16 be accepted

🖖 💥