Standard deduction vs. itemized - big picture surprise

I over-withheld my state taxes. My bad, and I will fix it for next year.

Going through my federal return, the large amount plus other deductions exceeded my standard deduction and put me into Schedule A. I got to add some donations - even better. Great - less taxes and I'll pocket a bigger refund.

But if I consider that by itemizing, my state tax refund will now be 1099-G'ed and will count as income next year. At my marginal tax rate, that added income's tax will be more than this year's savings. So, in the bigger picture, it seems that I should revert to the standard deduction.

Am I missing something here?