A bank shot way to make voters care about debt and deficits
*tldr - A Ross Perot style independent could get the public to care about the debt.*
I was thinking about what Sarah and JVL said yesterday -- debt and deficits are bad, but voters don't care -- and I thought back to the Clinton era. Just so you understand my POV, I got out of college in 1990 and voted for Clinton in 1992. I voted for Bush in 1988.
In 1991 George HW Bush looked unbeatable. The Persian Gulf War had been a smashing success and his approval rating was in the 70s. However, two things happened that started to chip away at that.
1. Unemployment started rising in late 1990 and continued to climb for the rest of his presidency. 2. The deficit was much higher than expected.
During this period Ross Perot started getting a lot of attention through frequent appearances on Larry King. A charismatic guy with a folksy affect, Perot was politically conservative, but not a culture warrior. More like "eat your vegetables and leave people alone." He railed against politicians for not managing the economy well and letting debt get out of control.
He was repeatedly asked if he would run for president and he said no. But a "Draft Perot" movement started and he eventually got in the race.
One thing he did was focus public attention on the deficit. A lot of people (incorrectly) blamed the the deficit for the recession, so by fall 1992 Clinton and Bush both had to have a response to that claim. As the incumbent, Bush never made a strong case, so Clinton won a three way race.
After Clinton took office everyone agreed the most important thing was the economy. He tried and failed to pass a stimulus bill. Around the same time, Alan Greenspan got in his ear and convinced him to focus on the deficit.
In 1993 he raised taxes. The economy was already in recovery and this was actually a good time to do it. Republicans took the House in 1994, and that push-pull between Clinton and Gingrich eventually led to a balanced budget.
In 2028 I think there could be space for a Ross Perot type independent to run against the deficit. I don't think they would win, but it would change the national conversation. Mark Cuban is the obvious example, but I imagine there are other charismatic billionaires who could do it.
(I have thoughts on how the deficit actually could be fixed, but that's a different post.)