Results of a small Button survey

Edit (May 8th): The raw results from the survey can be found [here](http://pastebin.com/sqqY9rJ8).

Last week (on April 28th), I posted a small survey about button pressing plans. As promised, now I present the results.

First of all: Thank you to everyone how participated in this survey!

The survey was online for one week and 30 participants were registered.

This represents a very small sample size, therefore the following results cannot be considered to be representative for the button community. But they might still be interesting. With 30 participants, the sample size is very small compared to the number of active users (for the sake of reference, at the time of writing this, there are 1631 users here which means that something like participants represent only about 1.8% of the currently users).

In the following, for each question, I first describe the results and then provide some (limited) interpretations. Unfortunately, the survey tool I used does not allow me to track which answers belong to the same participant. Thus, I cannot make statements of the kind "x% of the participants that answered "yes" in question 1, answered with "Yes, my flair is very important to me." in question 3. Due to the small sample size, I did not test for significance.

(Note, that "0" answers in all of the following graphs are represented with a bar of height 0.1 to make them visible.)

**Question 1: Have you pressed the button already?** As you can see [here](http://i.imgur.com/uNm8aXJ.png) the majority of the participants have not yet pressed the button. This probably reflects that at the time of the survey more gray-flairs were around than colored-flairs. Of course, this is not a measure of the overall ratio of gray-flairs/ color-flairs in the set of (at least for a time) button-interested redditors.

**Question 2: Do you plan to press the button eventually?** Interestingly, most participants intend to press the button, see [here](http://i.imgur.com/GqVkQhL.png). Combining all positive and all negative answers, respectively, we end up with 71 % pro-pressers and only 17% non-pressers. However, probably not only grays have answered this question (since there are more answers than the 24 "I have not pressed yet"-replays from question one. Thus, I should have formulated the questions more precisely. Well, this is not the only instance of that). But this still seems to indicate that a majority of gray-flairs will eventually join the colored-flairs. In particular, the Followers of the Shade are not well represented in this sample. (Again, please be mindful of the very small sample size.) From my point of view (as a Knight of the Button), this would be very good news because each one of them will extend the button's life. Thank you, by the way!

Based on the (subjectively observed) high frequency of "I will stay pure and never press"-posts I had expected a different outcome here.

**Question 3: Do you care for the flair you will end up with (gray or otherwise)?** First, [the statistics again](http://i.imgur.com/cFcSXLn.png). Most participant (76%) value their flair (although not necessarily very strongly). This illustrates what is apparent in most current posts in /r/thebutton: Flair matters. For whatever reason.

**Question 4: If you plan to press the button which color do you want to have?** The [answer](http://i.imgur.com/XRnDOJO.png) is quite clear: Most participants that have not pressed yet are waiting for a red flair. It is interesting that all colors are represented here. For those that haven been wondering why still people press at purple, blue, green, ... flair: This survey tentatively indicates that at least some of those simply want that flair. Further, blue did not get more attention here than the other early colors, which indicates that the Hitchhiking Exodus was already over at the time of the survey.

The flair distribution here differs from the daily distribution as produced for example but they [Button Snitch](http://treyp.github.io/thebutton/), in so far that far less purple flairs are included. However, that might be explained by the addition of random clicks (which lead to an exponential background) and too-late clicks that end up as high purples. (Note to self: on the sad day when the timer has finally run out, check whether I can distinguish between these two background sources in the complete data set.)

Again, from the point of view of a Knight of the button this hopeful. If more people are willing to wait for a red flair, they also extend the lifetime of the button further. At least except for collisions (several people clicking at the same time and all gaining the same flair) which are (unfortunately) not measured here. Admittedly, it might not be surprising that those of us that have withheld their button press for a month are waiting for the last flair possible.

**Question 5: If you plan to press the button, do you want to press at a specific second? Please specify which one in the "Other" field!"** [Here](http://i.imgur.com/DXBZ8s3.png), is an overview of the results for this question. Not only flair matters, but to 70% of the participants the specific second matters as well (at least somewhat). A notable 44% is willing to be patient to wait for the flair-second they want. This question is from my point of view particularly interesting for an attempt to predict the button press behavior within the current red phase. From question 3 we know that most participants want a red flair. Here, we see, that at least half of them also want a specific number. Unfortunately, only four participants filled out which ones: *E*, *42*, *33*, *Yes, the lowest number to keep the button going for longer.* (And only one of them is identifiable a red-flair.)

If flair color was the only relevant aspect, 11s are the most likely option (because that can be achieved quicker and by now with a smaller probability of being overtaken by someone else). If everyone who wants red, would only care for the color, the red phase could look very different from the other colors. Because there is no other color to wait for, there would be no reason to let the timer go below ~ 11s and it could happen that after everyone clicked at 11s almost no one would be left to click afterwards. (Except for the Knights of the button, of course). The answers to this question indicate (within the limit of the small sample size. Have I mentioned that already?) that this is not to be expected. At least until 1s is reached, we will probably see the same behavior as in the previous colors.

Of, course, this tells us nothing about the latest stage, but that was to be expected.

Interestingly, no one explicitly specified 1s as the desired flair. (Again, small sample size.)

**Question 6: If you already have pressed the button, did you get the flair you wanted?** When you look at the answers [here](http://i.imgur.com/PLvZ0qS.png), you see that most pressers ended up with their intended flair. This question is aimed at the those that have already pressed. Interestingly, there are 9 replies here, compared to only 8 "No"s in question 1. Well, maybe someone pressed while filling out the survey. (Or made a mistake. Or was simply fooling around. Or ... whatever.)

Among the pressers, it might be reasonable to assume that those that were unsatisfied or frustrated because they did not get the flair they wanted probably left the subreddit and did not see this survey. So, additional to the even smaller sample size in this case, there is an inherent bias here. Let's carefully say that satisfied pressers seem to be more likely to hang around.

**Question 7: Do you associate yourself with a button \"religion\"?** Even before linking the results I want to admit that for this question I'm particularly unhappy with my phrasing. *Button "religion"* probably is a lot more misleading than I intended. For the context of this question, I intended *button "religion"* to refer to *any* button related group - and I should have made that clearer. Luckily for me, the answers [here](http://i.imgur.com/WvT4vts.png) are at least consistent with that meaning.

About as many participants see themselves at least loosely affiliated with a button subgroup (56%) as are not interested in that (44%).

**Question 8: If you belong to a button "religion", which one is it? You can specify several.** Well, here is the unfiltered list of replies:

* Knightsofthebutton * knights of the button * Knights of the Button, Red Guard, Project Zombie * The Followers of the Shade, The Red Guard, Assassins of the Button * Redguard * Orange Revolution * sunguardians * Ronin at the Edge of Time * NoTap * Uh, I guess the redguards? I think that's what they call it * but mostly I just monitor what's happening and how stupid people are, i think they are called scientists. * Shade * The Church of the Button * Brother of the red.

After question 4 which revealed that most participants that still want to press the button want a red flair, it is not surprising that we see the same mirrored here. Most groups mentioned here (Redguard, Knights of the Button, Ronin at the Edge of Time) are associated with a red flair (although, of course, not exactly for the same reasons). That *NoTap* and *the Followers of the Shade* are both only mentioned once, is consistent with the answers to question 2.

**Question 9: Have you changed your mind about pressing the button?** The button has been around for (by now) more than a month which leaves ample time to came to a decision what to do with your very own button press. But also sufficient time to change your mind. As can be seen [here](http://i.imgur.com/jVvvxeV.png), the majority of participants (66%) stick with their original plan, but a minority (24%) has not made a decision yet or change their mind frequently. Interesting while some (11 %) changed their minds in favour of now wanting to press the button, none of the participants started out with wanting to press the button and no decided against it. Next to the too small sample size this could be explained by a selection bias. Waiting to press the button might be a more highly correlated to hanging a round in /r/thebutton than not wanting to press. The "undecided" group here corresponds nicely to the "I don't know yet"-answers in question 2.

**Question 10: Do you expect something special to happen when/ after the button counter ran out (for real)?** As illustrated [here](http://i.imgur.com/RPpLn7M.png), the majority of participants (69%) expect nothing special to happen when the button finally runs out. Only 6% of the participants expect something special. This is probably influenced by the Great Cassandra Glitch and the subsequent Hitchhiker exodus.

**Question 11: What is your guess what will happen when the timer reaches zero?** As for question 8, please enjoy the unedited list of replies:

* The experiment will end and the internet will start to riot like baltimore. * "The Experiment Has Ended" * "The experiment is over" * nothing happens. people freak out. * A message will appear: "The experiment is over." * nothing * The button will stop resetting and remain at 0. * Most likely nothing. * The world will end or Half Life 3 will be released * "The experiment has ended" * Reddit will release server information, and we will finally learn what this was all about. * We know the experiment ends. We might get some nice trophies in out flair color, though. * we already know from the code that it displays 'the experiment is over' but I think maybe we might get 'trophies' from it * Some sort of internet joke, like dickbutt, or a rickroll. * Trophies will be awarded on userpage for all participants * Everyone gets trophies depending on when or if they pressed. Anyone with any flair gets a trophy. * The sub will be deleted? Gold for pressers? * fuck all, people being disappointed and me laughing at the idiots. * Nothing for about 2 days, and then a huge data dump, some handshaking and headshaking. * The timer will reaches zero

**Question 12: Does it matter what will happen when the timer runs out?** The majority of the participants (54%) is curious about what happens at the end of the timer, see [here](http://i.imgur.com/oyTP4dl.png), for 22% of the participants it is important (at least somewhat) and for a similar fraction of participants (25 %) a potential event at the end of the button is less relevant. This indicated that for most participants, finding out what will happen at the end is not the most interesting part. Although this is only a guess, I suspect that this might have been very different before the Great Cassandra Glitch. Question 3 allows the guess that flair is now considered to be relatively more relevant.

**Question 13: What is your current guess until when the button will last? ** Here, again and for the last time only the unmodified list of replies:

* No clue * May 23rd * another couple weeks. * 10 days left. * 2015-05-17 UTC 10:22:04 * until 5/5/2015 * I would guess at least in to June or July. There will be a lot more people aiming for red rather than yellow or orange that will drag it out. Every night there are still people that stay up and monitor it. * May 6th * About five more days. Maybe less. * The end of the world! * Mid-late May * June 7 * I hope until June. My best guess is May 15. * end of May 2015 * 1st - 10th of May * maybe 1 or 2 more weeks * I'm sticking with my original guess made on day 2: the button will be around for two months after its conception * Until all eligible pressers have pressed. 6 months? * we already has this question... fuck all * May13

Note that, everyone who participated in this survey did so between April, 28th and May 1st. The majority of participants (~ 67%)) see the likely end of the timer in May. The button has already outlived two of the above guesses.

If question 2 was significant (which it is not due to the small sample size), about 70% of grays probably want to press the button and 80% of those want a red flair (and because they will extend the life time of the button by the largest amount I disregard the other 20% in the following). Let's assume a collision rate of 2.5 (i.e. about 2-3 people press at the same time) and that everyone who wants a red flair clicks at 11s (as a lower estimate).

That means about 100.000 willing pressers would extend the life time of the button by about 12.7 days. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to estimate the true number of the available grays. But ... if nothing extreme happens (like another Hitchhiking Exodus), if the number of pressers reaches 1.000.000, this probably means the button lasts at least another two weeks. But only if this survey is representative of the button community - and that is because of the very small sample size a huge IF.

Thank you again for participating and being interested in this survey!