What happens to Liu Qi if he avoids dying of illness shortly after Red Cliffs?
Just having some idle thoughts on the train, so this is mostly from memory - sorry for any inaccuracies. I was just thinking that Liu Qi's death from illness had some quite auspicious timing as far as setting up the post-Red Cliffs status quo goes.
As far as I recall, Liu Qi's timeline is taking a position away from Xiangyang to avoid deadly court politics, as the Cai clan is backing his younger brother Liu Cong as Liu Biao's successor as governor of Jing. When Liu Biao does die, Liu Qi isn't a position to stop Liu Cong from taking the position. Not that he can think about that much anyway, as Cao Cao swoops in right after when Liu Cong surrenders to him.
Liu Qi's position away from Xiangyang does put him into position to assist Liu Bei after Chang Ban with troops of his own during the retreat. Liu Qi participates in the battle at Red Cliffs with a force roughly equal in number to Liu Bei (though I can't recall any notable talent working under Liu Qi, while Liu Bei obviously has Zhuge Liang, Guan Yu, Zhang Fei, et al. in his corner). Shortly afterwards, Liu Qi gets sick and dies.
As we know, control over Jing province ends up being a point of some contention in the years to come. But if Liu Qi survives, he presumably would attempt to push to succeed his father's post in some regard, which leaves a nagging loose end in an already politically fraught situation. Sun Quan and Sun Ce have a history of fighting Liu Biao, Liu Bei is obviously ambitious, Liu Qi has a history of being unable to get political support from the gentry in Jing considering the Liu Cong situation, and there's still Cao Cao just a stone's throw away.
So in this situation, is Liu Qi just totally fucked? I don't know much about his personality. On the one hand, the Liu Cong situation doesn't reflect well on him as a politician, but on the other, he could have surrendered to Cao Cao as well and be set for life with some do-nothing job, so he's got at least some guts for choosing otherwise. Do you think he tries to hold onto Jing as much as he can against Liu Bei and Sun Quan, accept a subordinate post under one or the other to save his life, or just get run out of town by the locals again?