Let's do the math: The odds of an American citizen dying by homicide in the US are 3x greater than the odds of an American citizen dying by homicide in Mexico

I read an article about the LA County prosecutor who died in Rosarito last weekend (perhaps murdered, the investigation continues - he fell or was thrown off of a 3rd story balcony at Las Rocas) and I went to the comments section and - of course - there was just one comment after the other of, "Why would anyone go to Mexico? It's soooooo dangerous." So, I decided to dig up the actual figures and... imagine my surprise to discover that the odds of an American citizen dying by homicide in the US are 3x greater than the odds of dying by homicide in Mexico.

**All of these figures are courtesy of the US State Department**, including this very helpful website: [https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/while-abroad/death-abroad1/death-statistics.html](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/while-abroad/death-abroad1/death-statistics.html)

There are an estimated 1.6 million American citizens living in Mexico full time. In 2021, the most recent year for which statistics are available, an estimated 22 million Americans visited Mexico as tourists. So, to simplify the analysis, let's assume that each tourist was in Mexico for one week. If we divide 22 million by 52 (weeks) we come up with 423,000 full-time equivalents (by time spent in Mexico). Then we add the 423,000 to the 1.6 million actual full-time Americans living in Mexico and we get \~2 million full-time equivalents. There were 47 American citizens that died by homicide in Mexico between June 2021 and June 2022 (the most recent stats available). We don't know how it breaks out between full-time residents and tourists. So, if we take 47 (homicides) and divide by 2 million (full-time equivalents) **we get the odds of an American citizen dying by homicide in Mexico of .0023% (or 1 in 43,478).** (Using the most recently-available statistics, of course.)

The population of the US is roughly 330 million. In 2021 there were 21,570 homicides in the US. If we take 21,570 and divide by 330 million **we get the odds of an American citizen dying by homicide in the US of .0065% (or 1 in 15,384), which is almost 3x greater than .0023%.**

Now, clearly this doesn't take into account where folks live in the US. I'm sure the odds of dying by homicide are lower in the suburbs versus urban settings, for example. It also doesn't address the homicide rate of Mexican citizens in Mexico. But you'd think following the news that Mexico is incredibly dangerous for American citizens when, as it turns out... it's the US that is more dangerous (where homicide is concerned) for its citizenry by a factor. (At least according to the most recently-available statistics.)

Am I missing something here?