538 Player Projections
With the huge influx of new players, I went to 538 to check out exactly what we got in return. The output has its flaws, but it at least ballparks values on out acquisitions.
Fine print from 538 on their formula:
>Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like. > >Wins above replacement projections are based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from our [Robust Algorithm using Player Tracking and On-off Ratings](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/) (RAPTOR), a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2020. [Read More »](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/)
Here's the roster:
|Player|Category|5 Year Value|Best Comparison (Similarity Score)| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Karl-Anthony Towns|All-Star|$237M|2008 Chris Bosh (40)| |Josh Okogie|Future All-Star|$137M|2016 Marcus Smart (58)| |D'Angelo Russell|Up-And-Comer|$115M|2015 John Wall (50)| |Jarrett Culver|Good Prospect|$76.3M|2012 Alec Burks (55)| |Malik Beasley|Rotation Player|$51M|1989 Reggie Miller (69)| |Juancho Hernangomez|Rotation Player|$31.3M|1986 Michael Cage (62)| |Allen Crabbe|Rotation Player|$22.3M|2016 Kyle Singler (59)| |Jacob Evans|Rotation Player|$21.6M|2007 Antoine Wright (44)| |Jaylen Nowell|Marginal Prospect|$19.9M|2007 Shannon Brown (67)| |Omari Spellman|Prospect|$19.9M|2002 Jurmaine Jones (69)| |Jordan McLaughlin (TW)|Marginal Prospect|$15.9M|2002 Earl Watson (75)| |Jake Layman|Scrub|$14.4M|2016 Matt Bonner (67)| |Kelan Martin (TW)|Marginal Prospect|$12.5M|2016 Brendan Dawson (74)| |James Johnson|Scrub|$8.8M|2004 Rodney Rodgers (55)| |Naz Reid|Marginal Prospect|$6.6M|2013 Quincy Miller (52)| |Jarred (not enough data) Vanderbilt|¯\_(ツ)\_/¯|$43.1M|1978 Bill Willoughby (16)| |Evan (Buyout) Turner|Scrub|$10.3M|2017 Shawn Livingston (49)|
Pretty interesting overall. Although there is a lot of youth on this list and in some cases you can tell the data is being skewed in one way or the other.
* Okogie was a big surprise, I'm not really sure what the data is seeing that is giving him such a high ranking. * KAT is truly a unicorn. His similarity score of 40 is the lowest on the roster, minus Jarred Vanderbilt. (We will get to him later) * Naz Reid was surprising to see so low. I think he is a big reason we moved Gorgui. Possibly too small of a sample. * Juancho/Beasley both seem spot on from a salary perspective. Beasley at around $10M per year and Juancho coming in around $6M/per. They would both be great at that price, imo. Even with Beasley turning down $3/30 from Denver, maybe bump him up to 12-14. * Layman is NOT A SCRUB
Edit to include outgoing players:
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|Player|Category|5 Year Value| |:-|:-|:-| |Andrew Wiggins|Average Starter|$58.2M| |Robert Covington|Borderline All-Star|$107.7M| |Keita Bates-Diop|Project|$17.7M| |Shabazz Napier|Key Role Player|$44.9M| |Jordan Bell|Rotation Player|$19.5M| |Noah Vonleh|Rotation Player|$37.3M| |Gorgui Dieng|Rotation Player|$19.2M| |Jeff Teague|Rotation Player|$18.1M| |Treveon Graham|Rotation Player|$22.9M|
Incoming $: 323.3 (9 players)
Outgoing $: 345.5 (9 players)
Net $: -22.2 + Nets 2020 1st round pick - T3 Wolves 2020 1st round pick