The Draft & Jarrett Culver
After listening to a few podcasts and watching throughout the season for myself I think the Wolves have a real draft problem. The draft history of this team is well documented, you don't even need to be a Wolves fan to know that. Threads, NBA analysts, and nephews alike love to bring up the Khan era and missing out on Curry. It's honestly become one of the most noteworthy things about this franchise. [Oh and there was the whole Joe Smith ordeal..](https://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/01/nba-joe-smith-illegal-contract-timberwolves). The bigger problem here is that even with new FOs, the draft still hasn't improved.
# Draft History:
For the sake of keeping this somewhat brief, I'm going to start looking at this from the year 2000 (sorry Wally) and only look at the first round. Right off the bat, you'll notice there aren't a lot of firsts around that time. This is the point where I'll redirect you to the Joe Smith link above. The NBA doesn't take kindly to under the table deals.
|Year|Pick #|Player|Trade/Trade Return|Notes| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |2000||||Joe Smith| |2001||||Joe Smith| |2002||||Joe Smith| |2003|26|Ndudi Ebi||Not sure how we got this pick| |2004||||Joe Smith| |2005|14|Rashad McCants||| |2006|6|Brandon Roy\*|Randy Foye + Cash|[Yikes](https://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/1953/a-gift-from-minnesota-how-brandon-roy-got-to-portland)| |2007|7|Corey Brewer||| |2008|3|OJ Mayo\*|**Rec'd**: Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins **Traded**: Mayo, Antoine Walker, Marko Jaric, Greg Buckner|Pek at #31| |2009|5, 6, 18, 28|Rubio, Flynn, Ty Lawson\*, Ellington|**Rec'd**: Future first from Den (via CHA) **Traded**: Lawson|| |2010|4, 16, 23|Wes Johnson, Luke Babbitt\*, Trevor Booker\*|**Rec'd:** Martell Webster **Traded:** Babbitt, Gomes **Rec'd:** \#30 & #35 **Traded:** Booker|30: Lazar Hayward 35: Nemanja Bjelica| |2011|2|Derrick Williams||| |2012||||| |2013|9, 26|Trey Burke\*, Andre Roberson\*|**Rec'd:** \#14 & #21 **Traded:** Trey Burke **Rec'd:** Cash **Traded:** Roberson|\#14: Shabazz Muhammad #21: Gorgui Dieng| |2014|13|Zach LaVine||[Pure Drama](https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/6/27/5850688/zach-lavine-nba-draft-minnesota-timberwolves)Shout-out Wigs| |2015|1|Karl-Anthony Towns||| |2016|5|Kris Dunn||| |2017|7|Lauri Markkanen\*|**Rec'd:** Jimmy Butler & #16 **Traded:** \#7, Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn|\#7: Lauri Markkanen #16: Justin Patton| |2018|20|Josh Okogie||| |2019|11|Cameron Johnson\*|**Rec'd:** \#5 **Traded:** \#11 & Dario Saric|\#5: Jarrett Culver #11: Cameron Johnson| |2020|T10 & T16 (est)||||
So at the peak of our franchise, we lost 5 consecutive first round picks and failed to win a championship around KG. We've has 11 picks in the top 10 and 6 picks in the top 5. I think looking at the list of picks above the quality of those selections speak for themselves. Love and KAT are the only real 'stars' that have been drafted into Minnesota in the last 20 years. LaVine is rising, but don't get me started on why he isn't here at the moment. Rubio might be the next best on the list, but Brandon Roy is the one that hurts the most.
# The Jarrett Culver Problem:
If you've even gotten to this point, good for you. At least I've created a somewhat complete draft history guide. This post was supposed to be about Jarrett Culver, right? Well let's talk about him in the context of our last few drafts. After drafting our current savior KAT, we went Kris Dunn, Jimmy Trade, Josh Okogie, and the man himself, Jarrett Culver. Again not getting into the Jimmy deal, we have used 3 consecutive first round picks on players that don't have an established jump shot. We've seen Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, Lauri Markkanen, Landry Shamet, Aaron Holiday, Anfrenee Simons, Coby White, Tyler Herro, etc all show some early success. The consistent variable between them was all their shooting ability. Even Cameron Johnson has carved out a role in PHX.
Ok, he can't shoot. What can he do? Culver has shown potential defensively, and as he grows, he figures to be a good NBA defender. He can get to the rim, and has shown good ability to draw fouls. When he is aggressive, he's played well, but he goes invisible far too often.
The problem with both of those things is, Okogie is the better defender right now and most of his drives are to the right and he only really finished with his right hand. He is shooting a horrible 46% from the FT line when he draws fouls off of drives. There's a very effective counter to all that he's done well this season.
The Culver selection is especially concerning given the fact that he was taken by the current FO that has emphasized shooting 3's, arguably Culver's biggest flaw. Whatever happened during the draft is still unclear, but I'm in the camp that Garland was the pick and Cleveland either went BPA or was trying to strong-arm us, like Portland did in the Roy-Foye trade. It's honestly a very, very weird pick all things considered.
Gersson Rosas has been adamant about getting a dynamic PG to pair with KAT so many of us were talked into Culver potentially taking on some ball-handling responsibilities. We whiffed on D'Lo during the off-season and with Teague expiring it seemed like a possibility at the time. The fact of the matter is, he hasn't gotten that opportunity early on and now we've acquired the white whale in Russell. So it remains to be seen what his role is on this team. Spending not only the 5th overall selection but also moving Saric, for someone playing backup to Josh Okogie is a tough pill to swallow.
His minutes have been inconsistent over the course of the season and I fail to see a longer term plan as we brought in Beasley, Johnson, Crabbe, who all seem to play over him. Its not about being competitive now, why not let him develop in real game action. I get that he has a long way to go, but we aren't necessarily winning it all this year. Playing Crabbe and Johnson (I get we need size) doesn't move the needle either. Jordan McLaughlin has had decent spurts, but couldn't Culver test out ball-handling duties next to him for stretches? Shouldn't the 5th overall pick play over him?
I'm starting to think that he is like the rest of the roster in that this final third of the season is a tryout for Culver. I get it's early to give up on him, but we need our draft capital to succeed. In our market, in Minnesota, we aren't a FA destination and we need to build through the draft. Or with Culver, our pick and the Nets pick we could make a somewhat attractive package for a more proved quantity. The FO has shown they're willing to make deals. In a 'down' draft it might be an appealing option.
# The 2020 Draft:
Top priority is to draft shooting. It is clear the FO is emphasizing 3pt shooting. A secondary need is defense and finding a capable complement to KAT at the 4.
Prospects to Watch:
|Player|Age at Draft|Height|Position|Counting Stats (P/R/A)|FG/3pt/FT%|Notes| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Tyrese Haliburton|20.31|6'5"|PG/SG|15.2/5.9/6.5|50.4/41.9/82.2|Out for season| |Killian Hayes|18.9|6'5"|PG/SG|11.4/2.7/5.3|49.2/32.3/88.6|Euro| |Devin Vassell|19.82|6'7"|SG|13.4/5.3/1.7|49.9/42.0/73.8|1.1 stl 1.5 blk| |Obi Toppin|22.3|6'9"|PF|19.7/7.8/2.0|63.0/36.4/71.0|Older| |Paul Reed|21.02|6'9"|PF|15.1/10.6/1.5|52.3/29.8/76.6|2.7 blk, 2.0 stl| |Reggie Perry|20.25|6'10"|PF|17.7/9.8/2.4|51.3/32.3/75.5|| |Jalen Smith|20.26|6'10"|PF|15.2/10.8/0.8|53.8/39.4/74.4|2.3 blk| |Isaiah Stewart|19.08|6'9"|PF|17.1/8.8/0.7|56.5/25.0/75.6|2.1 blk| |Shaddiq Bey|21.20|6'8"|SF|15.4/5.1/2.4|47.1/45.1/78.5|5.3 3PA| |Aaron Nesmith|20.68|6'6"|SF/SG|23/4.9/0.9|51.2/52.2/82.5|Out for season|
There are other guys, but this highlights some of the best shooters from all different positions in/around the first round. I think with Russell's ability to play on and off ball, PG isn't out of the question. Haliburton's measurables could hide some of Russell's defensive holes. Meanwhile, there are a decent amount of stretch 4's available. Reed/Stewart offer the most defensive upside, while losing a little shooting.
It's tough to project the picks now with so much yet to happen, but with a light FA class it might also make sense to trade that capital along with Culver for someone like Jonathan Isaac or test a fit with Aaron Gordon.
Realistic FA acquisitions would be RFA Bogdan Bogdanovic, $9.1M PO Jeremi Grant, $8.2M PO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, $6.5M PO Markieff Morris, Montrezl Harrell, $4.8M PO JaMychal Green, RHJ.
In addition to Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe all set to expire this off-season. Leaving up $42M to spend. Beasley \~$11-15M, Junacho \~$6-10M. Gives us around $20M to realistically play with.
TL;DR: We suck at drafting, Jarrett Culver might be another addition to that list. Drafting him doesn't fit into the system the FO has implemented. Draft is somewhat down, does it make sense to package them for a proven commodity?