Roster Construction Conundrum
As many of us foresaw this offseason, there are some questions about the roster construction. Russell, Rubio, McLaughlin, Nowell, Hagans, Beasley, Edwards, Okogie, Culver, Layman. Are all players who I will call 'wings'. Technically you could subcategorize ball-handlers and wings, but for simplicity, I'll stick with 'wings'.
Looking at that list, I genuinely like all of those players. With my rose colored glasses on I can see everyone of those guys (sans Hagans/Nowell (TBD)) contributing on a playoff roster. Not in the sense of getting meaningful playoff minutes, but doing their part in a regular season depth role. We've built a generally likeable roster, with a lot of guys that should be able to contribute. However, that is part of the problem, without a defined hierarchy, I think the players and coaches are struggling to find an identity (plus, you know, KAT being out).
IMO, playoffs were always going to be tough this season and with that in mind I think the rotation should be favoring development into the future (again...). Without calling for Saunders head or mocking the PrOsAs, I think a couple rotational changes can help clear a path forward.
**Josh Okogie's Starting Role:** Okogie is a fan favorite. His effort is through the roof and his defense is much needed on this roster. Josh played 33 and 32 minutes, respectively, in two wins to open the season before getting injured 11 minutes into the loss vs LAL. These wins were with KAT in the lineup, but there are pieces of Okogie that shout 'winning basketball' to me (along with some boneheaded mistakes). The concept of 'winning basketball' vs 'stat gathering' is an interesting conversation and could be had about a lot of the talent on this roster. That said, Okogie was pick 20. Culver was pick 6 in the following draft. Edwards was pick 1 the year after. Is playing Okogie the most out of those three beneficial? Culver provides more size, similar skillset and a similar if not higher ceiling. Culver can also play a winning style of basketball. Ant has a much higher ceiling, but opposite skillset. Overall, if we view ourselves as having playoff potential he should probably start. Looking towards the future, probably not. **Verdict: Bench for Culver, a similar, but higher ceiling player.**
**Malik Beasley's Starting Role:** Beasley has been the second best player on the roster so far this season. He is playing hungry and is earning the $60M deal he signed over the off-season. He has proven valuable as a shooter and been surprising as a cutter or driving to the hoop. The only problem, we have Ant sitting behind him. It's just odd considering our two biggest offseason moves, typically slot at the 2 and excel at similar things, scoring the ball. Both have potential, but it gets messy when dealing with the #1 pick vs someone making 15M per year on a bottom tier roster. Overall, he is a fine starter for what we have now, ultimately he would be a great 6th man, if Edwards can develop. If he improves defensively he is a key starting piece. Its an ideal position if both Edwards and Beasley are starting caliber guards. **Verdict: Fine, but keep getting better.**
**PG Rotation:** After dealing with Teague for too many years, one would think a rotation of Russell, Rubio, the ever persistent and surprising McLaughlin, plus preseason GOAT Jaylen Nowell would be a sight for sore eyes, but maybe not so much. Through tinkering with the lineup it seems Rubio and Russell are not great together. If they continue to struggle together, it squeezes the lineup even further, limiting McLaughlin and Nowell in the fight for PG minutes. Looking at the remaining contracts:
* D'Angelo Russell - 3 years, $90M * Ricky Rubio - 2 years, $34.8M * Jordan McLaughlin - Two-Way (1 year) * Jaylen Nowell - Non-Guaranteed thru 2022-23 * Ashton Hagans - Two-Way
Russell isn't going anywhere, but after that, there isn't much into the future. Rubio will be a $17.8M expiring next year and will be a huge trade candidate (sadly) (give me a PF, please). That is a big benefit to a roster that is strapped for cash and any semblance of a FA presence. It also lends itself to exploring what Edwards can do in a ball-handling role. IMO, Rubio and Edwards should be splitting this duty with the second unit. Effectively slotting Ant as a part time PG opens up the wing rotation as well. A year from now sans Ricky and likely JMac, developing Ant makes too much sense. JMac is in a tough spot, we don't have contractual control over him and I don't necessarily see him back next season, I'd prefer Nowell>McLaughlin at this point. **Verdict: Russell 1, Rubio/Ant 2/3, Nowell>McLaughlin, but limited**. Which leads to:
**Edwards Role:** IMO, he will have a lot more opportunity with the second unit, and he needs to have the opportunity to handle the rock. I really like the freedom he can get with more non-scorers, lesser established opposing players on the court with him. Give him the keys off the bench, there isn't a lot to lose here. Too many times he isn't involved and he loses interest. It might not be right, but he needs the ball to stay engaged. His development should be prioritized over Okogie, Culver, Beasley and any PG on the roster minus D'Lo (arguable). The second unit is the best place for that right now, imo. Adding Okogie to the second unit gives even more freedom to Edwards offensively and hopefully injects some energy into a sometimes lackadaisical player. Playing with two of the better defenders on the roster (Rubio and Okogie) can lead into easy offense and for Ant to guard a less established player defensively. Those calling for the #1 pick to be in the starting lineup are misguided, I think that would reduce his role even further. **Verdict: 6th man, more ball-handling, more minutes.**
**PF Rotation:** Borderline no playable players that could slot here for the time being. Okogie and Culver give up too much size defensively and are incapable of making up for it offensively, same with Layman, but its all we have. Juancho should start with KAT, but Vando should see more than garbage time minutes. McDaniels has been fun to watch, but I'm worried he would get bullied more than Okogie and Culver defensively. For now there isn't a fix here, have to hope and pray a Rubio trade could bring in starting caliber PF down the line. Overall, start Juancho, but without many other options I think we need to take a look at Vando during meaningful minutes. Try to hide Culver/Okogie/Layman for limited minutes, I think the small ball experiment has failed thus far. **Verdict: Pray**
**C Rotation:** Play KAT and fill in Naz or Davis. Big emphasis should be rebounding and screening. The PnR is going to be the name of the game with the KAT/D'Lo combination. **Verdict: Get healthy**
PG: Russell (28) Rubio (18) Ant (2)
SG: Beasley (30) Ant (18)
SF: Culver (23) Okogie (17) Ant (8)
PF: Juancho (21) Layman/Vando (21) Okogie (3) Culver (3)
C: KAT (34) Naz/Davis (14)
Totals: KAT (34), Beasley (30), Russell (28), Ant (28), Culver (26), Juancho (21), Okogie (20), Layman/Vando (10.5), Naz/Davis (7)
I'd love to see Ant/Okogie/Culver share the court together.
Limited minutes: Nowell, McLaughlin, McDaniels
TL;DR: We've got too many wings and not much else. Develop Ant as a ball-handler with the second unit. Prioritize his play time over McLaughlin and the disaster of a frontcourt we've assembled. We need our high picks to take meaningful steps forward before we do anything else productive.