2023-2026: this core's window
TL;DR: Concerns that we can't keep this core together are largely overblown, and if we want to, we should be fine from now until 2026-27.
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Reading in another thread, I saw someone mention that we can't afford to keep this core together long-term, which is something I see posted a lot. And perhaps it depends on how you define long-term, but I don't think it's correct overall.
My goal here is to break it down and show why keeping the core together isn't unrealistic, assuming they prove they deserve it. It is of course 100% dependent on how this core actually performs. It may underwhelm and get blown up next year.
I've avoided making any assumptions about who the Raptors could sign or trade for. This is only looking at players currently under contract plus rookie-scale draft picks. Obviously more moves are necessary to fill in a bench around the team.
I'm generally using a combination of Shamsports Capulator and Spotrac for numbers here. These may not be totally accurate, but are a good ballpark, IMO.
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**Before the window:**
Next year it should be relatively easy for the organization to stay below the tax threshold... it won't be the tightrope that it is this year, unless we get a $15m+ return for Dragic. And staying below the tax is key for two reasons: 1. it pushes the repeater rate further down the road (more on the repeater rate below; and 2. The organization can pick up a nice chunk of cash in what is likely to be another record-setting year in terms of tax-payments, good for off-setting their own tax payments down the line.
However, in the summer of 2023, both FVV and GTJ are up for contract renewals. I think this is the organization's evaluation window. If they aren't convinced this is a contender core, they can pull the reset cord: trade the stars, take on bad contracts for prospects and picks, reset around Barnes' window.
But this is going to focus on the other path: where the core convinces management that they are capable of contending, and the organization jumps in with both feet.
**Expiring Contracts:**
All five core players will have expiring contracts before 2026. I assume that those players that can opt-out early will do so. So, our renewals are: 2023: GTJ/FVV | 2024: Siakam/OG | 2025: Barnes.
Here's two different scenarios for salaries our core could demand, the first of what I think is a reasonable fair market salary for each (again assuming they do well), and the second where everyone gets the max.
**Fair**: GTJ: $27m, FVV: $33m, OG: $33m, Siakam: $39m (max), Barnes $25m (max).
**Max**: GTJ: $31m (max), FVV: $37m (max), OG: $39m (max), Siakam: $39m (max), Barnes $25m (max).
(If you think that even my fair value is overvaluing these guys, great! We'll have no problem keeping the core together if you're right.)
**Drafting**
We've also got all of our future first-rounders, and this is crucial. If the core proves that they are contenders, we'll need to get rotation-level players out of these draft picks. I'm assuming we draft somewhere in the neighbourhood of 16/20/24/24 over the next four years. I haven't put in 2nd-rounders, but 2nd-rounders and minimum contracts are more-or-less interchangeable in the big-picture.
**2023-24**
First year of contention window. Core contracts expiring: FVV and GTJ
We have the core plus Flynn / Achiuwa / Birch / 2022 FRP / 2023 FRP.
This puts us $8m under the tax in the 'fair' scenario, and $3m over the tax in the 'max' scenario for 10 players. Even in the 'fair' scenario, I'd expect other moves that put the team over the tax to round out the bench. Could be moves like signing Banton or Champagnie to extensions, retaining Yuta and Boucher, or signing veterans using the MLE next year or the following.
**2024-2025**
Second year of contention window. Core contracts expiring: OG and Siakam
The core plus 2022 FRP / 2023 FRP / 2024 FRP
In the 'fair' scenario, for 8 players we're 5m under the tax here, while in the max scenario we're $13m over. Again, other moves like those listed for the previous year will be needed to fill in the roster. However, even in that max scenario, if you budgeted $10m for filling out the roster, that still only puts us $23m or so into the tax, similar to what teams like Utah and Milwaukee are paying this year.
**2025-2026**
Third year of contention window. Core contract expiring: Barnes
\-edit: there's a great question in the comments about any jump in the tax here as a result of the new TV deal. Not going to add it here, but important thing to keep in mind.
The core plus 2022 FRP / 2023 FRP / 2024 FRP / 2025 FRP
In the 'fair' scenario we're about $4m over the tax for 9 players, while in the 'max' scenario, it's about $20m over. The organization might balk at being much more than $20m over as that's the highest taxpaying bracket. Still, if the core is good and those draft picks are good, you can fill in the rest with minimum-level players.
**Beyond 2026 and the repeater rate**
Beyond 2026, things get tough. At this point, we've been a taxpaying team for 3 years, which means the repeater rate kicks in and the tax payments spike. So far, the Warriors have been the only team able to stomach ongoing repeater-rate payments, though a few other teams (including some conference rivals listed below) will likely be payers soon. The repeater rate isn't awful if you're less than $20m over the tax, but even that would be tough to manage with this roster beyond 2026.
If the team is an ongoing contender MLSE might keep paying to keep the core together, but I'd also expect them to be prepared to blow it up quickly at that point at the first sign of the core no-longer being a contender, resetting around Barnes and any of the other rookie-contract guys they like.
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**The rest of the conference**
Part of my thoughts on this being a good contention window is because it's potentially a turnover point in the balance of the power in the conference. Obviously there will be trades that shift the balance of the conference, but there are few teams who project to peak during this window based on current rosters.
Milwaukee: Repeater rate in effect 2023-24, at which point Middleton, Holiday, Lopez will all be 32+. Other than Giannis, none of their young players project as elite.
Brooklyn: Repeater rate in effect in 2023-24, with Durant, Irving, and Harden all 31+. No young stars.
Philly: Repeater rate in effect in 2023-24, but better young core than the above teams.
Miami: No repeater rate concerns, but key aging vets plus young stars.
Chicago: No repeater rate concerns, but key aging vets plus young stars.
Young teams that might be hitting their peak during our window are Atlanta, Boston and Cleveland, maybe Knicks, Charlotte... Detroit and Orlando if they develop their young guys really well, but they're probably contending later.
There's no reason we can't be the top team in that window between when some of those vet teams are rebuilding or resetting, and when those young teams take the step to be true contenders.