The correct answer for the red/blue button problem is different when choosing for others, or for yourself

Consider the following situation:

Your daughter comes to you and says she has been placed in a random grouping of people drawn from around the world. You don't know the size of the grouping. You don't know who is in it. Your daughter informs you that she can choose one of two buttons

1) Red button. If she presses this button, she lives, 100% of the time.

2) Blue button. If she presses this button, she dies. Unless more than 50% of other people pick the blue button as well. Then she lives.

Which button would you tell her to pick? Obviously red. In fact, it is so obviously red, that it would be highly unethical to tell her to pick blue. Downright child endangerment, in fact.

But now imagine she says she will think about it and wander off. You aren't sure if she is going to pick red. Or if she is going to pick blue.

Now suppose you are given the *option* to add yourself to the group.

Obviously you pick to join the group.

And obviously you pick blue, every time. As a parent, to do otherwise would be unethical, in my view.