Be Weather Aware today! (not fearmongering)

me: advanced storm spotter, former chaser, been doing this since I was in my late teens, am in my mid 40s now, am SKYWARN trained.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

This will be invalid later in the evening but for now, here we go:

We are in a Moderate (4/5) for the night, and that's fairly rare in general as well as here specifically.

From the site:

> This initial activity will be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over 3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts (60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.

With time, upscale growth and the development of a forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.

Tornados are a 5% chance, but if they do pop up they will most likely be very intense/long lived.

Wind is a 45% chance and a level 2 intensity. This means we have a probability of 60-80 mph+ *sustained* winds ahead and along the dry line/cold front which is what's kickstarting the weather to begin with. Think trees blown down kind of microbursts. The front may end up to be a bow line which means really bad wind.

Hail is a 45% chance, level 2 intensity. This means 3-3.5" and HIGHER hail are possible - this is destroy roof/car weather.

Edit 12:45pm: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0474.html

Look out for a tornado watch probably no later than 3 pm!

Edit 152pm - Tornado Watch until 9pm! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0130.html

Prep now: Get valuables (including paperwork, extra water/food, flashlight, whistles in case you get buried, helmets) in the safe place.

Have your pets info there, also have your pet carriers ready to go. BRING OUTSIDE PETS INDOORS OR HAVE A PLACE THEY CAN GO TO INDOORS ffs don't leave your damn dogs out when the big hailstones can kill them, thanks.

Have an app on your phone that will alert you - do NOT rely on sirens, they are often the last resort.

Put extra vehicles inside/under cover. Don't park under giant trees, especially older brittle or deader looking ones.

Don't freak out; most likely, 9/10 times, if you are ready you won't need it. The 1 times you will, you'll be happy you did.

I will be spotting in my local area tonight. Please, everyone, stay safe. I'll answer any questions asked in good faith.